Author:

• Claudio José dos Santos Júnior - Santos Júnior, C. J. - <claudiojunior@usp.br>
ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2853-1968

Co-author(s):

• Marquiony Marques dos Santos - Santos, M. M. - <marquiony@gmail.com>
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5812-4004
• Fabio Celso Cipriano de Oliveira Lins - Lins, F.C.C.O - <fabioccolins@gmail.com>
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4827-8506
• Jackson Pinto Silva - Silva, J.P - <jacksonpinto66@gmail.com>
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9592-0840
• Kenio Costa de Lima - Lima, K. C. - <limke@uol.com.br>
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5668-4398

Abstract:

It is an ecological study that analyzed the time trend of Visceral Leishmaniasis incidence rates in Brazil using segmented time regression by joinpoints. There was a decreasing incidence rate of this disease in the country with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of -5 (CI95%: -9.1; -0.6) and a reduction of 1.69 cases/100 thousand inhabitants in 2007, and 0.91/100 thousand inhabitants in 2020. The Central-West region showed the highest reduction percent (AAPC: -9.1; CI95%: -13.8; -4.3), followed by the Southeast region (AAPC: -8.7; -14.6; -2.5). The North and South regions showed the largest number of joinpoints in the time series. The highest incidences were recorded in the male population, however, stable (AAPC: 2.14; CI95%: -8.3; 0). In the age group analysis, the trend was decreasing for the groups0 to 4 years old (AAPC: -7.7; CI95%: -12.6; -2.4), 5 to 9 years old (AAPC: -7.3; CI95%: -13.6; -0,4) and 10 to 14 years old (AAPC: -5.5; CI95%: -10.3; -0.3). It was found that although Visceral Leishmaniasis is an endemic disease in Brazil, there was a decrease in its incidence rate2007 to 2020.

Keywords:

Visceral Leishmaniasis; Epidemiological Monitoring; Temporal Distribution; Time Series Study; Ecological Studies.

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